On January 4th, its cruise ship Breakaway (I did not make this name up!) sailed right into the most dangerous portion of an explosively deepening, intense winter cyclone off the east coast, causing damage to the ship and greatly discomforting the passengers. And it did so by ignoring emphatic warnings by the meteorological community.
Some of the videos taken by passengers were terrifying, with large waves, water cascading down staircases, and items falling off the walls. Here are a few sample videos:
The ship has a store called the "Tides Boutique"---and during this storm it has real tides.
So what happened? The cruise ship sailed directly into the most dangerous sector of the storm. This plot show the NWS surface analysis (sea level pressures and fronts) at 4 AM January 4th and the position of the ship at that time. The ship was just south of the low center in a region of very strong winds---a region that is often called the "sting jet" in the weather business.
So what happened? The cruise ship sailed directly into the most dangerous sector of the storm. This plot show the NWS surface analysis (sea level pressures and fronts) at 4 AM January 4th and the position of the ship at that time. The ship was just south of the low center in a region of very strong winds---a region that is often called the "sting jet" in the weather business.
Here is a sustained wind analysis from the NOAA/NWS HRRR model with speed shown with the color fill, wind vectors with the symbols, and the black dot my estimated position of ship at the same time (4 AM Thursday PST). At this point, they were in sustained winds of around 45 knots (52 mph), with higher gusts. The ship was heading northward towards NY at this time.
You will notice even stronger winds in front (north) of them, with a long fetch---allowing the development of big waves. That morning the WindSat scatterometer satellite, which can measure surface winds from space (using the relationship between wind and small ocean waves,) went over the storm (and ship). Here are the winds it found (wind vectors, color coded shown). Sustained winds from the NW of 40-50 knots at the ship position off of North Carolina.
You will notice even stronger winds in front (north) of them, with a long fetch---allowing the development of big waves. That morning the WindSat scatterometer satellite, which can measure surface winds from space (using the relationship between wind and small ocean waves,) went over the storm (and ship). Here are the winds it found (wind vectors, color coded shown). Sustained winds from the NW of 40-50 knots at the ship position off of North Carolina.
The most dangerous location in the Pacific cyclone is to the south and southwest of the low center, in the region of strongest pressure gradient. This figure from a NOAA document indicates the region of very strong winds (red shading). Guess what ship was very close to the worst part of the storm?
The forecasts for this storm were excellent, days ahead of time. The forecasts made 24 hr and 48hr before the time shown above, had good forecasts of the storm (see below). The cruise line and the Captain had no excuses for being there.
24h 48h
The forecasts for this storm were excellent, days ahead of time. The forecasts made 24 hr and 48hr before the time shown above, had good forecasts of the storm (see below). The cruise line and the Captain had no excuses for being there.
24h 48h
The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) had an excellent forecast the day before for 80 kt wind gusts and 33 ft seas in the storm area. Waves around the Breakaway were estimated at 30 ft.
And the NOAA 4-day forecast was highly accurate.
The storm was moving rapidly to the Northeast, so a delay of 24hr would have made a world of difference.
Something is really wrong when a ship with 4000 passengers and over 1000 crew heads into an historic storm of great intensity. Thousands of lives were endangered and everyone on board had a very unpleasant experience. It appears that the Captain ignored highly reliable meteorological guidance and needlessly put the ship and its passengers at risk.
